Evaluating bird population trends requires baseline data. In North America the earliest population data available are those from the late 1960s. Forest conditions in the northern Great Lake states (U.S.A.), however, have undergone succession since the region was originally cut over around the turn of the twentieth century, and it is expected that bird populations have undergone concomitant change. We propose pre-Euro- American settlement as an alternative baseline for assessing changes in bird populations. We evaluated the amount, quality, and distribution of breeding bird habitat during the mid-1800s and early 1990s for three forest birds: the Pine Warbler ( Dendroica pinus), Blackburnian Warbler ( D. fusca), and Black-throated Green Warbler ( D. virens). We constructed models of bird and habitat relationships based on literature review and regional data sets of bird abundance and applied these models to widely available vegetation data. Original public-land survey records represented historical habitat conditions, and a combination of forest inventory and national land-cover data represented current conditions. We assessed model robustness by comparing current habitat distribution to actual breeding bird locations from the Wisconsin Breeding Bird Atlas. The model showed little change in the overall amount of Pine Warbler habitat, whereas both the Blackburnian Warber and the Black-throated Green Warbler have experienced substantial habitat losses. For the species we examined, habitat quality has degraded since presettlement and the spatial distribution of habitat shifted among ecoregions, with range expansion accompanying forest incursion into previously open habitats or the replacement of native forests with pine plantations. Sources of habitat loss and degradation include loss of conifers and loss of large trees. Using widely available data sources in a habitat suitability model framework, our method provides a long-term analysis of change in bird habitat and a presettlement baseline for assessing current conservation priority.
File: Schulte-et-al.-2005-ConsBiology.pdf
As climate change alters the global environment, it is critical to understand the relationship between shifting climate suitability and species distributions. Key questions include whether observed changes in population abundance are aligned with the velocity and direction of shifts predicted by climate suitability models and if the responses are consistent among species with similar ecological traits. We examined the direction and velocity of the observed abundance based distribution centroids compared with the model-predicted bioclimatic distribution centroids of 250 bird species across the United States from 1969 to 2011. We hypothesized that there is a significant positive correlation in both direction and velocity between the observed and the modeled shifts. We then tested five additional hypotheses that predicted differential shifting velocity based on ecological adaptability and climate change exposure. Contrary to our hypotheses, we found large differences between the observed and modeled shifts among all studied bird species and within specific ecological guilds. However, temperate migrants and habitat generalist species tended to have higher velocity of observed shifts than other species. Neotropical migratory and wetland birds also had significantly different observed velocities than their counterparts, which may be due to their climate change exposure. The velocity based on modeled bioclimatic suitability did not exhibit significant differences among most guilds. Boreal forest birds were the only guild with significantly faster modeled-shifts than the other groups, suggesting an elevated conservation risk for high latitude and altitude species. The highly idiosyncratic species responses to climate and the mismatch between shifts in modeled and observed distribution centroids highlight the challenge of predicting species distribution change based solely on climate suitability and the importance of non-climatic factors traits in shaping species distributions.
File: Huang-et-al_2023_Modeled-distribution-shifts-of-NA-birds-over-4-decades_ScienceOfTotalEnv.pdf
Human activities alter ecosystems everywhere, causing rapid biodiversity loss and biotic homogenization. These losses necessitate coordinated conservation actions guided by biodiversity and species distribution spatial data that cover large areas yet have fine-enough resolution to be management-relevant (i.e., ≤5 km). However, most biodiversity products are too coarse for management or are only available for small areas. Furthermore, many maps generated for biodiversity assessment and conservation do not explicitly quantify the inherent tradeoff between resolution and accuracy when predicting biodiversity patterns. Our goals were to generate predictive models of overall breeding bird species richness and species richness of different guilds based on nine functional or life-history-based traits across the conterminous United States at three resolutions (0.5, 2.5, and 5 km) and quantify the tradeoff between resolution and accuracy and, hence, relevance for management of the resulting biodiversity maps. We summarized 18 years of North American Breeding Bird Survey data (1992–2019) and modeled species richness using random forests, including 66 predictor variables (describing climate, vegetation, geomorphology, and anthropogenic conditions), 20 of which we newly derived. Among the three spatial resolutions, the percentage variance explained ranged from 27% to 60% (median = 54%; mean = 57%) for overall species richness and 12% to 87% (median = 61%; mean = 58%) for our different guilds. Overall species richness and guild-specific species richness were best explained at 5-km resolution using ~24 predictor variables based on percentage variance explained, symmetric mean absolute percentage error, and root mean square error values. However, our 2.5-km-resolution maps were almost as accurate and provided more spatially detailed information, which is why we recommend them for most management applications. Our results represent the first consistent, occurrence-based, and nationwide maps of breeding bird richness with a thorough accuracy assessment that are also spatially detailed enough to inform local management decisions. More broadly, our findings highlight the importance of explicitly considering tradeoffs between resolution and accuracy to create management-relevant biodiversity products for large areas.
File: Carroll_et_al-2022_Mapping_breeding.pdf
Territorial species are often predicted to adhere to an ideal despotic distribution and under-match local food resources, meaning that individuals in high-quality habitat achieve higher fitness than those in low-quality habitat. However, conditions such as high density, territory compression, and frequent territorial disputes in high-quality habitat are expected to cause habitat quality to decline as population density increases and, instead, promote resource matching. We studied a highly human-subsidized and under-matched population of Steller’s jays (Cyanocitta stelleri) to determine how under-matching is maintained despite high densities, compressed territories, and frequent agonistic behaviors, which should promote resource matching. We examined the distribution of fitness among individuals in high-quality, subsidized habitat, by categorizing jays into dominance classes and characterizing individual consumption of human food, body condition, fecundity, and core area size and spatial distribution. Individuals of all dominance classes consumed similar amounts of human food and had similar body condition and fecundity. However, the most dominant individuals maintained smaller core areas that had greater overlap with subsidized habitat than those of subordinates. Thus, we found that (1) jays attain high densities in subsidized areas because dominant individuals do not exclude subordinates from human food subsidies and (2) jay densities do not reach the level necessary to facilitate resource matching because dominant individuals monopolize space in subsidized areas. Our results suggest that human-modified landscapes may decouple dominance from fitness and that incomplete exclusion of subordinates may be a common mechanism underpinning high densities and creating source populations of synanthropic species in subsidized environments.
File: Brunk-et-al_2022_Failed-despots-and-the-aquitable-distribution-of-fitness-in-a-subsidized-species.pdf
Unprotected lands can help prevent the extinctions of species if managed carefully. Over half of the tropical forest is leased by logging companies, whereas only 6%–18% is protected. This makes the timber industry, institutions that regulate it, and consumers of its products important actors in conservation. We assessed the conservation responsibility, the proportion of a species’ range that tropical timber industry concessions overlap with, for bird species that decline after selective logging. Up to 32% of the global range and up to 100% of the national range of sensitive species within our study countries are leased by logging companies. Individual concessions overlap with the ranges of up to 25 sensitive and more than 500 total bird species, with a particularly high density in Borneo. Our results can inform governments, forest managers, sustainability certifiers, and consumers so that they can turn this responsibility into a conservation opportunity through interventions at multiple scales.
File: Burivalova_Conservation-Letters-2022-Conservation-responsibility-for-bird-species-in-tropical-logged-forests.pdf
During the breeding season, Kirtland’s Warblers (Setophaga kirtlandii) are strongly associated with young jack pine (Pinus banksiana) forests in northern Lower Michigan, USA. Since 2007, the species has been breeding in unusual habitat, red pine (Pinus resinosa) dominated plantations, in central Wisconsin, USA. Kirtland’s Warbler productivity and habitat use in red pine is not well understood, and the central Wisconsin population is at a range edge, a situation often associated with lower productivity. To compare range-edge and range-core populations, we estimated reproductive success and characterized habitat use of Kirtland’s Warblers in central Wisconsin red pine-dominated plantations during 2015–2017 using logistic regression models. We also monitored nests and fledgling success, and estimated nest survival using logistic exposure models. Trees were closer together and herbaceous vegetation was taller and denser within territories than at randomly located points outside of territories. Females selected nest sites with deeper dead ground vegetation and live vegetation that was taller and denser than was available at randomly located points within male territories. Nest success was not strongly influenced by within-patch habitat factors. Nest daily survival rate was 0.97 (95% CI = 0.94–0.98). The average number of young fledged per nest was between 2.5 and 2.8. Nest parasitism by Brown-headed Cowbirds (Molothrus ater) was 22.7%. Overall, reproductive success in the peripheral central Wisconsin breeding population of Kirtland’s Warblers that used red pine-dominated plantations was similar to that of Kirtland’s Warblers breeding in typical jack pine habitat in the range core. Young red pine-dominated habitat appears to approximate young jack pine in habitat quality for Kirtland’s Warblers, and this may provide managers some flexibility in habitat maintenance for this conservation-reliant species.
File: ACE-ECO-2021-2009.pdf
Secondary cavity nesters, bird species that rely on the presence of existing cavities, are highly vulnerable to anthropogenic and stochastic processes that reduce the availability of cavity bearing trees. The most common logging practice in Neotropical forests is selective logging, where a few valuable tree species are logged, primarily old, large trees that are the most prone to develop cavities and produce larger amounts of fruits and seeds. Tucuman Amazon, Amazona tucumana, is a threatened parrot that relies on the tree-cavities and food provided by large, old trees. Our objective was to evaluate how logging affects 1) stand and nest plot forest structure, 2) nesting site selection, 3) food availability, 4) density of suitable cavities, 5) nest density, and 6) nest spatial pattern of Tucuman Amazon by comparing a mature undisturbed forest in a National Park (NP) vs a logged forest (LF). We determined the availability of suitable cavities and food resources consumed by Tucuman Amazon, and we compared nest density and spatial pattern of nests between NP vs LF. The Index of food availability for all tree species consumed by Tucuman Amazon and for P. parlatorei were significantly higher in NP than in LF (34.5 ±13.3 m ha− 1 vs. 3.5 ± 1.0 m ha− 1 and 5.6 ± 2.3 m ha− 1 vs. 1.2 ± 1.0 m ha− 1, respectively). Density of suitable cavities for nesting in the NP was significantly higher than in the LF: 4.6 cavities ha− 1 [C.I. 95 %: 3.07 – 7.04 cavities ha− 1] vs. 1.1 cavities ha− 1 [C.I. 95 %: 0.73 – 1.66 cavities ha− 1], respectively. Mean density of Tucuman Amazon nests was significantly higher in the NP than in LF (0.25 ± 0.04 vs. 0.06 ± 0.04 nest ha− 1, respectively). Food availability is an important factor that affects Tucuman Amazon populations and when food is not limiting, the availability of suitable cavities and territorial behavior could play a role in regulating nest density. When evaluating the limiting factors for secondary cavity-nesting species of conservation concern it is important to evaluate the interplay of a set of potential limiting factors to propose sound forest management recommendations.
File: Rivera-et-al-2022_Effect-of-logging-on-Tucumon-Amazon.pdf
The niche-based argument that species are filtered from environments in which they cannot sustain viable populations is the basis of the Richness-Heterogeneity Relationship (RHR). However, the multi-dimensionality of niches suggests that the RHR may take different shapes along different environmental axes, with potential confounding effects if filtering along the axes is not equally strong. Here, we explore how different structural and landscape variables drive the RHR as the accumulative outcome of environmental preferences at the species-level while considering the intercorrelation between heterogeneity levels along three niche axes. We used occurrence data of avifauna from 226 sites situated along a grassland-to-woodland gradient in a Midwestern USA study area. In each site, we quantified horizontal (habitat cover type), vertical (vegetation height structure), and spatial (habitat configuration) heterogeneity and explored the shape of the observed RHR at the landscape scale, as well as the correlations among heterogeneity levels at different axes. We then fitted species distribution models to environmental variables from the three axes separately and compared the stacked probabilities of occurrences of all species to the observed species richness. We found that predictions of richness patterns improved when more than one heterogeneity axis was included in RHR models, and that habitat suitability along different axes is not equally strong. Furthermore, a unimodal RHR along the vegetation height axis, which the species distribution models revealed to be a weak predictor for most species, may arise through intercorrelation with heterogeneity along the two other axes, along which we recorded stronger signals of environmental preference at the species level. Our results emphasize the importance of selecting relevant niche axes in studies of species richness patterns because ultimately, these patterns reflect the various environmental preferences of individual species.
File: Gavish-et-al_2021_Effects-of-bird-species-level-environmental-preferences-on-landscape-level-richness-heterogeneity-relationships.-Basic-and-Applied-Ecology-56-1-13..pdf
Habitat Conservation Plans (HCPs) commonly facilitate habitat conservation on private land in the United States, yet the effectiveness of individual HCPs is rarely evaluated. Here, we assess the effectiveness of a high-profile HCP created by a lumber company to protect old-growth forests used for breeding by Marbled Murrelets (Brachyramphus marmoratus) on private land. We used 17 years of HCP-monitoring data to compare trends in murrelet occupancy and inland counts between private HCP areas and public reference areas over time. Based on occupancy models applied to audio-visual survey data, average occupancy was higher in public reference areas (0.85; 85% confidence intervals [CI]: 0.79–0.90) than in private HCP areas (0.46; 85% CI: 0.38–0.54). Numerically, trends in occupancy were slightly positive in public areas ( = 1.01; 85% CI: 0.94–1.08) and slightly negative in private areas ( = 0.97; 85% CI: 0.87–1.06), but CI did not preclude stable occupancy on both ownerships. Based on generalized linear mixed models applied to inland radar survey data, murrelet counts in private HCP areas (least-squares [LS] mean = 8.7; 85% CI: 6.2–12.2) were lower than those in public reference areas (LS mean = 14.8; 85% CI: 10.1–21.7), but CI overlapped. Murrelet counts declined by 12–17% annually on both ownerships over the study period based on the top model, but a closely competing interactive model suggested more rapid declines in public reference (14–20%) than in private HCP (10–15%) areas. Both models indicated that murrelet counts were negatively related to sea surface temperature, suggesting that warm ocean conditions negatively affect murrelet breeding effort. Collectively, these results suggest that while HCP habitat may be lower quality than public reference areas, the HCP has likely not exacerbated ongoing declines of murrelets in the region. This work highlights the importance of including reference areas when evaluating conservation policies.
File: Brunk-et-al-2021_Effectiveness-of-HCP-for-Marbled-Murrelet.pdf
Bird species richness is highly dependent on the amount of energy available in an ecosystem, with more available
energy supporting higher species richness. A good indicator for available energy is Gross Primary Productivity
(GPP), which can be estimated from satellite data.
Our question was how temporal dynamics in GPP affect bird species richness. Specifically, we evaluated the
potential of the Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs) derived from MODIS GPP data together with environmental and
climatic variables to explain annual patterns in bird richness across the conterminous United States. By focusing
on annual DHIs, we expand on previous applications of multi-year composite DHIs, and could evaluate lag-effects
between changes in GPP and species richness.
We used 8-day GPP data from 2003 to 2013 to calculate annual DHIs, which capture three aspects of vegetation
productivity: (1) annual cumulative productivity, (2) annual minimum productivity, and (3) annual
seasonality expressed as the coefficient of variation in productivity. For each year from 2003 to 2013, we
calculated total bird species richness and richness within six functional guilds, based on North American
Breeding Bird Survey data.
The DHIs alone explained up to 53% of the variation in annual bird richness within the different guilds
(adjusted deviance-squared D2adj = 0.20–0.52), and up to 75% of the variation (D2adj = 0.28–0.75) when
combined with other environmental and climatic variables. Annual DHIs had the highest explanatory power for
habitat-based guilds, such as grassland (D2adj = 0.67) and woodland breeding species (D2adj = 0.75). We found
some inter-annual variability in the explanatory power of annual DHIs, with a difference of 5–7 percentage
points in explained variation among years in DHI-only models, and 3–7 points for models combining DHI,
environmental and climatic variables. Our results using lagged year models did not deviate substantially from
same-year annual models.
We demonstrate the relevance of annual DHIs for biodiversity science, as effective predictors of temporal
variation in species richness patterns. We suggest that the use of annual DHIs can improve conservation planning,
by conveying the range of patterns of biodiversity response to global changes, over time.
File: Hobi-et-al-2021_BirdSpeciesRichness_DynamicHabIndices_EcolIndicators.pdf
