Biodiversity

Cost-effectiveness of different conservation strategies to establish a European bison metapopulation in the Carpathians

Posted on December 7, 2018

1. Where populations are con?ned to fragmented, human-dominated landscapes, preventing declines and extirpations will often rely on metapopulation management. Spatially-explicit population viability analyses provide tools to evaluate how well the local management e?orts can be combined to conserve metapopulations across large areas. Yet, metapopulation models have rarely been combined with tools to assess the cost-e?ectiveness of di?erent conservation strategies. 2. European bison Bison bonasus only occur in small, fragmented populations, making their long-term survival dependent on establishing a metapopulation across eastern Europe. We parameterized a European bison metapopulation model based on time-series of bison demography and a habitat suitability map to assess the viability of bison populations in the Carpathians and the relative cost-e?ectiveness of (i) reintroductions, (ii) wildlife overpasses and (iii) anti-poaching measures in establishing a viable bison metapopulation. 3. Our results suggest that the Carpathians could support a viable metapopulation of European bison provided that active e?orts are taken to safeguard bison and connect isolated herds. With such steps, our model forecasts that bison numbers could increase substantially over the next 100 years as local populations increase and bison recolonize parts of the Carpathians. 4. Reintroductions appear to be the most cost-e?ective approach for establishing a viable bison metapopulation among our scenarios, especially when coupled with wildlife overpasses to improve connectivity among herds. The most promising region for a bison metapopulation in the Carpathians was south-eastern Poland, Ukraine and northern Romania. We identi?ed several candidate regions for reintroductions and wildlife overpasses, especially in the border region of Romania and Ukraine. Site-speci?c assessments of both habitat suitability, and the costs and bene?ts of a large bison population, should target those regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight how careful conservation planning can identify solutions to preserve large mammals in human-dominated landscapes. Choosing the most e?ective option from a range of management strategies is a central challenge for wildlife managers. We have shown that incorporating cost-e?ectiveness analyses into metapopulation models can elucidate the relative value (gain per unit cost) of di?erent conservation management options, allowing decision makers to choose cost-e?ective options to preserve large mammals. Our model projections also provide hope for establishing a viable free-ranging European bison population in the Carpathians, one of the last relatively wild areas in Europe.

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Predicting potential European bison habitat across its former range

Posted on December 7, 2018

Habitat loss threatens large mammals worldwide and their survival will depend on habitat in human-dominated landscapes. Conservation planners thus face the challenge to identify areas of least conflict with land use, yet broad-scale species distribution models rarely incorporate real landscape patters nor do they identify potential conservation conflicts. An excellent example of such conservation challenges are European bison. Almost extinct by the early 20th century, bison can only survive in the wild if large metapopulations are established, but it is unclear where new herds can be reintroduced. Using European bison as an example we conducted a continental-scale habitat assessment based on real landscape patterns. Our specific aims here were to a) map European bison habitat throughout the species' former range, b) examine whether broad-scale habitat suitability factors differ from previously reported fine-scale factors, and c) assess where suitable habitat occurs in areas with low potential for conflict with land use. We assessed habitat suitability using herd range maps for all 36 free-ranging European bison herds as habitat use data. Habitat suitability maps were compared with maps of land cover, livestock density, agricultural constraints, and protected areas to assess potential conservation conflicts. Our models had high goodness-of-fit (AUC = 0.941) and we found abundant potential bison habitat. European bison prefer mosaic-type landscapes, with a preference for broadleaved and mixed forests. European bison metapopulations appear not limited by habitat availability. However, most potential habitat occurred outside protected areas and has substantial potential for conservation conflicts. The most promising areas to establish large bison metapopulations all occur in Eastern Europe (i.e., the Carpathians, the Belarus-Ukraine borderlands, and several regions in European Russia). The future of European bison and that of other large mammals in the wild thus clearly lies in Eastern Europe, because habitat there is most abundant and least fragmented, and because the potential for conflict with land use is lower. More generally we suggest that broad-scale habitat assessments that incorporate land use can be powerful tools for conservation planning and will be key if large herbivore and carnivore conservation is to succeed in a human-dominated world.

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A comparison of Dynamic Habitat Indices derived from different MODIS products as predictors of avian species richness

Posted on October 26, 2018

Understanding past and current patterns of species richness is essential for predicting how these patterns may be affected by future global change. The species energy hypothesis predicts that higher abundance and richness of animal species occur where available energy is higher and more consistently available. There is a wide range of remote sensing proxies for available energy, such as vegetation productivity, but it is not clear which best predict species richness. Our goal here was to evaluate different proxies for annual plant productivity from Terra and Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) as input for the Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs), and to determine how well they predict the richness of breeding bird species in six functional guilds across the conterminous United States. The DHIs are measures of vegetation productivity over the course of a year and consist of three components: (1) cumulative productivity (DHI Cum), (2) minimum productivity (DHI Min), and (3) intra-annual variation of productivity (DHI Var). We hypothesized that increases in cumulative and minimum productivity and reductions in intra-annual variation will be associated with higher species richness. We calculated the DHIs from a range of MODIS 1000-m vegetation productivity data sets for 2003– 2014, i.e., the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI), Fraction of absorbed Photosynthetically Active Radiation (FPAR), Leaf Area Index (LAI), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP). We summarized bird species richness of different guilds within ecoregions (n = 85) based on abundance maps derived from the N3000 routes of the North American Breeding Bird Survey for 2006 to 2012. Generally, we found all the DHIs had high explanatory power for predicting breeding bird species richness. However, the strength of the associations between the DHIs and bird species richness depended on habitat, nest placement, and migratory behavior. We found highest correlations for habitat-based guilds, such as grassland breeding species (R2 adj 0.66–0.73 for the multiple DHI regression model; R2 adj 0.41–0.61 for minimum DHI) and woodland breeding species (R2 adj 0.34–0.60 for the multiple DHI regression model; R2 adj 0.26–0.51 for cumulative DHI). The strong relationship between the DHIs and bird species richness reinforces the importance of vegetation productivity as a determinant of species diversity patterns, and the usefulness of satellite data for applying the species energy hypothesis to predictions in service to conservation.

File: Hobi_Dubinin_RSE_2017.pdf

Where and how well are mongooses doing in Puerto Rico?

Posted on January 20, 2016

Many animal and plant species found in areas where they did not occur in the past. These newcomers are known as invasive species. The consequences of having a new species could benefit the system by bringing new ecosystem services to the areas such as new pollinators for crops. Unfortunately in many cases the new species can have negative impacts at the community level by competing with local species and even displacing them. Diana is particularly interested in a species that has had mainly negative consequences for other species in places wherever it was introduced, the mongoose. Mongooses ( Herpestes auropunctatus) are native from India, and were introduced to Caribbean and Pacific islands at the end of the 20th century. These predators were brought into the area to control rats (another invasive) that were affecting sugarcane plantations. However, mongooses didn’t only eat rats it also local island species such as birds, amphibians and reptiles. Therefore this new species caused the decline and extinction of local species without eradicating the rat problem.

Mongoose in the live trap will be checked for disease

Local and federal agencies have tried to remove or reduce populations of mongoose from the islands but have failed because mongoose populations grew rapidly. Although they are omnivorous, mongooses keep predate especially local populations of ground nesting birds and marine tortoises among other species. However, there is little knowledge of the extent of the problem: how mongooses behave, its biology in the island, which species is eating the most or how the populations are related within and between islands.

Diana is studying mongooses in Puerto Rico from multiple angles, to have a bigger picture of the problem. She wants to know where the mongooses populations are and how well connected the populations are to each other. She considers that populations that are connected are more difficult to manage, because removed mongooses will be easily replaced by individuals of adjacent connected populations. Diana will use molecular techniques to identify these connection patterns and how are natural or artificial barriers and other habitat features in the landscape limiting mongoose dispersal. She also wants to know what are preferred prey species of different populations of mongoose. By using stable isotopes, she will track the source of food of mongooses.

Probability of mongoose occupying habitats in eastern Puerto Rico. Connectivity prediction was done using 34 mongooses trapped on the eastern part of the island via CIRCUITSCAPE using structural resistance. (Data on Cabo Rojo NWR was excluded)

Ultimately, Diana will have a sense of how the overall island community of wildlife species is assembled, having this predator already stablished from over a century. This information will be useful for wildlife managers and biologist who will know how the mongoose is distributed and prioritize areas to control the populations. With information about the trophic position and links of this predator, she will provide the base for research questions related to novel animal community assemblies and resilience after species introductions.

Finding critical habitat for jaguars when potential distributions of species is not enough: Connectivity to the rescue

Posted on January 7, 2016

Figure 1. Location of the Sierra Gorda Biosphere reserve in central Mexico

In central Mexico, there is a geographically and biologically unique space featuring a mosaic of a varied diversity of flora and fauna, the Sierra Gorda Biosphere Reserve. Yet similar to other reserves in the world, human and climate drivers are changing the unique conditions of this area at an accelerated rate (Figure 2). However, this reserve remains home to important protected and endangered species that are struggling to find optimal habitat conditions elsewhere, thus it is important to identify potential areas that are suitable for keep these animal populations.Jaguar (Panthera onca) is one of these endangered species, and essential in the faunal community because of its position as a top predator (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Jaguar captured in a camera trap by Grupo Ecologico Sierra Gorda

Furthermore, the presence of jaguars is an indicator of the health of the ecosystems and by conserving its habitat we can also protect other species. However, is very difficult to allocate efforts to large areas and therefore we need to identify and prioritize the most important zones capable to host jaguars.In the SILVIS lab, Carlos Ramirez Reyes, created a potential species distribution model for jaguars based on presence data and using factors than can affect their distribution such as topography, landcover and precipitation among others (Figure 3).

Figure 3. Potential distribution for jaguars in the Sierra Gorda Biosphere Reserve

Based on this model, he identified areas inside within and outside the reserve that could host jaguars. Additionally, by adding connectivity parameters to the models (Figure 4), he evaluated if habitat connectivity actually improves the potential distribution model for the reserve. The goal was to find patches of potential habitat that are critical for connectivity of the entire reserve.

Figure 4. Relative importance of potential habitat patches to maintain the connectivity of the system

With his research Carlos hopes to gain better knowledge for the habitat requirements of the jaguar in the region. Ultimately, the project should serve to inform nongovernmental organizations and government agencies with interests in the reserve to make decisions on how to distribute resources for the management of the species and prioritize areas that should be protected. Furthermore, this project includes a new method for obtaining potential areas through the use of landscape connectivity. Similar projects that aim to model potential species distribution can benefit from this technique given that landscape connectivity is also important for animal dispersal and gene flow in fragmented landscapes. “

Evaluating the influence of conservation plans on land protection actions in Wisconsin

Posted on January 14, 2015

Conservation plans identify where we can most efficiently protect parcels across the landscape to help conserve biodiversity into the future. Plans are comprehensive, involving the efforts of many people, including the public, often over multiple years. As a result, plans can be costly to develop. Thus it’s important to understand whether plans are making a difference. That is, are conservation plans actually influencing how and where we protect lands.

Figure 1. The comprehensive and interconnected nature of developing and implementing conservation plans.

Sarah looked at two different kinds of plans – broad-scale plans that set priorities for land protection across an entire state, and local-scale plans that help define exactly which parcels within a given priority area we seeking to protect. She asked whether each type of plan influenced 1) how much land was protected, 2) where land was protected, and 3) what type of land was protected (e.g., forests for grasslands). Sarah asked these questions in the state of Wisconsin, in part because the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources has been actively planning for and conserving land in Wisconsin for more than a century. The actual impact of conservation plans is difficult to detect, because we don’t know what would have happened in the absence of a plan. History is tricky like that. So Sarah took a different approach. She looked at land protection actions before and after each plan was developed. In essence, she asked whether we could see a difference in how much, where, or what kinds of lands were protected before versus after each plan was completed. Sarah’s study focused on four statewide plans led or developed in close collaboration with the Wisconsin DNR. The plans were completed in 1939, 1964, 2004, and 2008. She also looked at hundreds of local Wisconsin DNR plans completed between 1938 and 2011. Including historical plans (and land protection records) in the study provided an uncommon opportunity to look at the potential influence of plans over long time periods.

Fig. 2. Total annual statewide a) value of land protected, b) area of land protected, and c) number of land protection transactions; and d) US gross domestic product, e) federal funding granted to states for land protection, and f) state funds for land protection for each year between 1900 and 2012. Dotted lines indicate years in which conservation plans were completed

What Sarah found was in some ways surprising, and in other ways not. At a broad-scale, statewide plans did not have a clear influence on how much, where, or what type of lands are protected. Some changes in behavior that one might expect were detected. For example, the value and area of land protected in Wisconsin was greater after than before the 1939 plan. Similarly, more land was protected (via more individual transactions) after versus before the 2008 plan (Figure 2).However, overall 58% of lands protected within 20 years of plan completion were outside of plan boundaries (Figure 3).

Figure 3: The location of lands protected inside and outside of plan boundaries within twenty years after plan completion for each of the four statewide plans for Wisconsin. The size of small protected areas has been exaggerated slightly to more clearly show their spatial distribution.

.There are a number of likely reasons for this. First, money matters. Often changes in land protection were associated with changes in funding for conservation, or in the economy in general. It’s not surprising that plans are more likely to have an influence on land protection when there is more funding available to protect land. Second, it’s clear that plans build on each other, making it difficult to separate out the influence of any individual plan. Thus priority areas in recent plans are often the same general areas that were identified in earlier plans. Conservation actions build on each other – areas that we protect improve in quality over time through management and restoration actions, and become even more valuable as core areas around which we can center future protection activities. Thus our recent actions are often a continuation of actions that began many years ago, decades before the most recent plan was written!…..The story was quite different when Sarah and her colleagues looked at local-scale plans (what the Wisconsin DNR calls local projects, or plans that cover individual parks or wildlife areas). More than 91% of the time, more activity occurred in a local area after a local plan was approved. Further, most of this activity happened within the first five years (Figure 4). Clearly local plans make a difference, and they do so in a hurry.

Fig. 4. Land protection activity over time inside individual, local land protection projects (n=371 projects).

The take home message: plans do matter. Broad-scale plans set the stage for local plans, and local plans correspond with big changes in local land protection. But clearly plans can be most influential when you have a perfect storm of influences coming together – when the economy is strong, when there is public and political support for conservation, and when there is funding available specifically for land protection for conservation purposes. While this conclusion will come as no surprise to many, it’s not something that had been documented previously in the scientific literature. The century-long, carefully-documented history of conservation planning and land protection by the Wisconsin DNR is not common worldwide, and allowed us to quantify and better understand this important interplay between plans, actions, and money in a way that hadn’t been possible before.”

Forest birds in the sacred forests of Yunnan, China: what do they need for habitat?

Posted on January 14, 2015

In the northern region of Yunnan Province, for generations, Tibetan villagers have set aside patches of forest for spiritual proposes, also known as Tibetan sacred forests. During previous research Jodi and Eric discovered that sacred forests are keystone structures for conservation of forest bird in a landscape dominated by degraded pastureland.

Figure 1. Mrs. Gould’s Sunbird (Aethopyga gouldiae), which are often found using Tibetan sacred forests as breeding habitat. (Photo: Eric Wood)

They found more than 30 bird species heavily using sacred forests rather than pastureland. This result highlighted the importance of these forests for bird conservation. After this first study, the next step was to understand what characteristics of these forests make them so attractive for bird? Eric said: ‘In order to effectively manage and conserve bird species in the sacred forests, we need to understand the foundational habitat requirement of these birds. Once we know this, they we can begin to make recommendations for conservation applications. We now know that sacred forests support many bird species, the question that remain is why?’ For this, Jodi and Eric collected field data on habitat structure and composition and bird richness and abundance to construct bird-habitat relationship occupancy models. Some key structural variables that the pair sampled were cover of leaf litter, herbaceous materials, shrubs and trees. These variables are indicators of what species need for survivorship: nesting sites, food, refugee and protection. Once data was collected, and back in the comfort of Madison, Eric developed models to relate the explanatory variables with occupancy of over 30 bird species. With this model-selection approach, it was possible to select best-supported habitat-characteristics associated with a particular species occupancy.

Figure 2 Relationships of predicted sample -point occupancy for six bird species with three habitat characteristics representing the ground and sub-canopy layer. Bird species codes: BLPH & LAPH = Blood and Lady Amherst’s Pheasant, YBBW = Yellowish-bellied Bush Warbler, GILT = Giant Laughingthrush, ELLT = Elliot’s Laughingthrush, CVNH = Chestnut-vented Nuthatch, YUNH = Yunnan Nuthatch.

In addition to the structural variables indicating diverse forested habitats, they found that high cover of leaf litter and shrubs are associated with occupancy of understory birds. While doing fieldwork, they observe that some understory specialist look for their food in the litter, where they can find insects underneath the leaves.

Figure 3. Gray-backed Shrike (Lanius tephronotus), which are often found using degraded habitat adjacent to Tibetan sacred forests. (Photo: Eric Wood)

These result highlighted the importance of field observation. In cases where so little life history information is available, field work become a crucial experience to understand what the models are saying to us afterwards. While China continues to grow in population, there is an increase pressure in resources (e.g., wood, water, and land) in less populated regions, as is the case of Yunnan. In addition to learning more about birds that use Tibetan sacred forests as breeding habitat, the result of this research helps inform future forest management in a regional context.”

Forest Changes in the Altay

Posted on January 14, 2015

In the Altay region of Central Siberia, the forests are changing. Old-growth forest, which is needed to maintain a rich biodiversity, has been reduced drastically and now occurs mainly in protected areas. However, this important forest type is being threatened by logging, even within protected area borders, and conservationists are worried.

Logging within 50 m from black stork nest.

Although many protected areas within Altay allow some permits for logging, loggers are finding ways to cut corners and take more than their fair share. For example, some amount of selective logging might be allowed where 20% of individual trees are available for harvest, but loggers will end up removing closer to 80% of the trees. Sanitary logging, where old and dead trees can be harvested is also allowed, however, loggers often take younger, healthy trees instead. These types of logging are problematic and technically illegal, but to date have been hard to fight as finding the sites of illegal harvest is the proverbial needle in a haystack. Russian researcher Alexander Schur who visited SILIVIS in 2013 and 2014, along with SILVIS lab colleagues Matthias Bauman, and Eugenia Bragina, are at the forefront of tackling this problem, and using satellite technology to identify locations of old growth forest within protected areas that are being logged. To detect the illegal logging, they are using remotely sensed satellite imagery from Landsat in combination with forest inventory data collected by local forestry agencies. By looking at satellite images of the protected areas from different time periods, the goal is to identify where forest change had occurred, potentially identifying areas of illegal logging. The next step was to visit some of these identified disturbance areas, to check if logging had occurred or not, and this took place after Alexander returned to Altay. Overall, areas that suffered clear-cuts and high-intensity logging were well detected from the satellite imagery. In addition, areas of burnt ground were also well detected which is an important conservation concern for this region; fires in the Altay’s are often of anthropogenic origin as a byproduct of brush left behind after logging and is likewise detrimental to biodiversity. The use of these maps to detect logging is promising, because it allows for areas of forest disturbance to be easily identified, and this means that exhaustive searches by foot are no longer needed. In addition, having maps of disturbance across the entire protected areas makes it more difficult for loggers to hide their logging activities, handing the control back to the conservation practitioners and allowing to prosecute logging companies that act illegally. Forest conservationists are using the outputs of these maps to educate and raise awareness on the issues of illegal logging.

Great Spotted Eagle (IUCN status ‘vulnerable’), on the territory of a sanctuary

Conservation efforts are also underway, where information from forest disturbance maps are being used in conjunction with data collected on the location of rare and endangered plant and animal species that depend on old growth forest, such as Large-flowered Cypripedium orchids (Cypripedium macranthos), the Great Spotted Eagle (Aquila clanga) and the endangered black stork (Ciconia nigra). This information will then be used to designate special areas within the borders of protected areas where all logging is prohibited with the aim to protect old growth forest and subsequently biodiversity in central Siberia.”

Habitat connectivity for the Indochinese tiger in Thailand

Posted on January 14, 2015

The Indochinese tiger (Panthera tigris) (Figure 1) is one of the most emblematic animal species on Earth yet it is also one of the most globally endangered wildlife species. Once common throughout Asia, the number of tigers has dropped dramatically over the last century due to human activities, such as habitat loss (e.g. deforestation) and illegal hunting. Conserving the remaining tigers and their habitat is a major conservation goal in Asia and globally.Conserving the tiger requires understanding of the tiger’s habitat preferences and their movement across the landscape. ‘By understanding where the most suitable habitat and corridors for tigers are, we could help land managers and conservationists to guide efforts aimed at conserve the tiger’, said Naparat Suttidate, a PhD student at Silvis.

Figure 1. The tiger from camera traps in Hui Kha Khaeng protected area, Thailand by Sukmasuang

Thailand is one of the last remaining hotspots for tigers in the world. There are about 250-350 tigers in Thailand and spread in about 15 known subpopulation. Suttidate is from Thailand, ‘tigers were relatively common in Thailand, but now they are restricted to a few areas, mainly within protected areas’, she said.Suttidate’s goal is to create a nation-wide map of potential habitat for tiger, which can be used to identify the most suitable places across the landscape where the species may occur. Second, she plans to quantify the connectivity among those suitable areas, in order to identify potential pathways or corridors between subpopulation. Suttidate’s research uses field observation of tigers collected using camera traps (Figure 2), and advanced geospatial techniques such as habitat suitability models, and least-cost path analysis for mapping connectivity.

Figure 2 tigers’ occurrence data from protected areas across Thailand

The result of this effort is a unique, unprecedented assessment of the tiger’s habitat in Thailand that provides important spatial information to support conservation efforts.Suttidate’s ultimate goal is to benefit conservation planning and management in Thailand. The new habitat suitability maps could help local managers to quantify the extent and distribution of the remaining habitat available for tigers in the country, and to identify potential ways to connect the remaining tiger populations. The maps can also be used to guide potential reintroduction efforts and to identify priority areas for conservation. ‘Tigers are an umbrella species, and so any effort to help conserving the tiger will benefit other local species as well’, Suttidate said.”

Change in alpine wetlands of Southwest China and its implications for wintering Black-necked Cranes

Posted on March 31, 2014

Napahai, a high mountain valley wetland in southwest Yunnan Province, is one of three major wintering areas for the Black-necked Crane. With peak counts of the birds at Napahai totaling almost 1,000 birds in the 1960s, the population declined to less than 100 cranes in the 1980s.

Map of China showing the location of Yunnan province, the provincial capital of Kunming and Xiangalila, the Chinese spelling for Shangri-La.

Then, in the early 1980s the creation of water impoundments increased the available habitat for the crane, and the population increased to between 300-500 birds. However, since the mid-1990s, there has been an increase in infrastructure development and agriculture in the valley. While the global population of black-necked cranes has been on the rise over the last 10 years, now estimated at approximately 10,000, the number wintering at Napahai has been steadily declining. Why such a drop in the wintering population? James Burnham along with collaborators from the International Crane Foundation, the Kunming Institute of Zoology, and the University of Strasbourg are trying to find the answer.The reasons for the fluctuating number of Black-necked Cranes observed at Napahai are not straight forward. ‘The expansion of water and agriculture (important foraging and roosting habitat for the cranes) may have helped increase wintering numbers,’ James notes, ‘but further infrastructure development and changing patterns of agriculture may have countered these benefits and reduced Napahai’s utility for wintering Black-necked Cranes.’

A family of Black-necked Cranes and a domestic pig forage in Napahai near one of the several communities that depend on the wetland.

The size of the wetland fluctuates based on local precipitation, which changes the areas available for foraging and roosting, but other changes in the landscape are also in play. Napahai sits at the center of northwest Yunnan’s Deqen County with a population of over 130,000 individuals, predominately ethnic Tibetan and Naxi minorities. The county seat of Shangri-La, renamed in 2001 to entice tourists to this picturesque valley, sits at the edge of Napahai and its development has had dramatic impacts on Napahai.James and his colleagues are employing multiple techniques to investigate these patterns. He uses imagery from the SPOT and QuickBird satellites, which capture high resolution (down to 2.5 m pixel size) imagery to provide pictures of the entire wetland, adjacent uplands and the city of Shangri-La.

Tibetan prayer flags mark one of the overlooks of Napahai, now accessible by a new highway that encircles the wetland.

Based on these images, he is creating highly detailed maps that show the land cover composition of the area. Once those maps are completed, James and his partners will link the observed locations of Black-necked Cranes to these detailed land cover maps and identify which habitats are most important to the birds. James is also attempting to link the fine-scale satellite imagery to Landsat imagery, which does not provide as much detail as the SPOT or Quickbird satellites, but will provide more information about how Napahai has changed since the mid-1980s when economic reforms began to really transform the region. The ultimate goal is to identify how land cover has changed at Napahai, quantify the changes in foraging and roosting habitat and link those patterns with the changes observed in the numbers of Black-necked Cranes wintering in the valley. With that information, James and his colleagues might be able to piece together what is causing the decline in the valley and make concrete recommendations to local resources managers about how to limit, or even reverse, the decline of the cranes of Shangri-La.”