Paying the extinction debt in southern Wisconsin forest understories.

The lack of long-term baseline data restricts the ability to measure changes in biological diversity directly and to determine its cause. This hampers conservation efforts and limits testing of basic tenets of ecology and conservation biology. We used a historical baseline survey to track shifts in the abundance and distribution of 296 native understory species across 82 sites over 55 years in the fragmented forests of southern Wisconsin. We resurveyed stands first surveyed in the early 1950s to evaluate the influence of patch size and surrounding land cover on shifts in native plant richness and heterogeneity and to evaluate changes in the relative importance of local site conditions versus the surrounding landscape context as drivers of community composition and structure. Larger forests and those with more surrounding forest cover lost fewer species, were more likely to recruit new species, and had lower rates of homogenization than smaller forests in more fragmented landscapes. Nearby urbanization further reduced both alpha and beta understory diversity. Similarly, understory composition depended strongly on local site conditions in the original survey but only weakly reflected the surrounding landscape composition. By 2005, however, the relative importance of these factors had reversed such that the surrounding landscape structure is now a much better predictor of understory composition than are local site conditions. Collectively, these results strongly support the idea that larger intact habitat patches and landscapes better sustain native species diversity and demonstrate that humans play an increasingly important role in driving patterns of native species diversity and community composition.

File: Rogers_etal_ConsBio_2009.pdf

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Influence of forest planning alternatives on landscape pattern and ecosystem processes in northern Wisconsin, USA

Incorporating an ecosystem management perspective into forest planning requires consideration of the impacts of timber management on a suite of landscape characteristics at broad spatial and long temporal scales. We used the LANDIS forest landscape simulation model to predict forest composition and landscape pattern under seven alternative forest management plans drafted for the Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest in Wisconsin. We analyzed 20 response variables representing changes in landscape characteristics that relate to eight timber and wildlife management objectives. AMANOVA showed significant variation in the response variables among the alternative management plans. For most (16 out of 20) response variables, plans ranked either directly or inversely to the extent of even-aged management. The amount of hemlock on the landscape had a surprising positive relationship with even-aged management because hemlock is never cut, even in a clear cut. Our results also show that multiple management objectives can create conflicts related to the amount and arrangement of management activities. For example, American marten and ruffed grouse habitat are maintained by mutually exclusive activities. Our approach demonstrates a way to evaluate alternative management plans and assess if they are likely to meet their stated, multiple objectives. 2008 by Elsevier B.V.

File: Zollner-etal-FEM-2008.pdf

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Forest Visualization for Management and Planning in Wisconsin.

Participation by the public in the management process of public forested lands has led to innovation in the visual simulation of management options. So far, visualization technology has largely been used by researchers and consultants, not by natural resource managers themselves. A three-dimensional forest visualization system, developed for use by the Wisconsin Department of Natural Resources, incorporates a library of photographs of trees, snags, and even logging debris in an effort to depict forest management activities realistically. Managers need only limited training to quickly generate visualizations depicting a specific stand or an entire landscape in its current and potential future states under a variety of silvicultural treatments. We describe the components of the system so that it can be recreated for other regions.

File: Stoltman_et_al_JOF_2004.pdf

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Habitat and population modelling of Roe Deer using an interactive Geographic Information System

Management of German roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) populations is a challenge for wildlife managers and foresters because population densities are difficult to estimate in forests and forest regeneration can be negatively affected when roe deer density is high. We describe a model to determine deer population densities compatible with forest management goals, and to assess harvest rates necessary to maintain desired deer densities. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to model wildlife habitat and population dynamics over time. Our model interactively incorporates knowledge of ?eld biologists and foresters via a graphical user interface (GUI). Calibration of the model with deer damage maps allowed us to evaluate density dependence of a roe deer population. Incorporation of local knowledge into temporally dynamic and spatial models increases understanding of population dynamics and improves wildlife management.

File: Radeloff_etal_EM1999.pdf

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Housing growth, forests, and public lands in Northern Wisconsin from 1940 to 2000

Rural, forested areas throughout the United States are experiencing strong housing growth with potentially detrimental impacts on the environment. In this paper, we quantify housing growth in Northern Wisconsin over the last sixty years to determine if growth rates were higher near public lands, which may represent an important recreational amenity. We used data from the U.S. Census to produce decadal housing density estimates, ''backcasts,'' from 1940 to 2000 for northern Wisconsin to examine ''rural sprawl'' in northern Wisconsin and its relationship to forested areas and public lands. We integrated housing density estimates with the 1992/1993 National Land Cover Dataset to examine the relationship between rural sprawl and land cover, especially forests. Between 1940 and 2000, private land with <2 housing units/km2 decreased from 47% to 21% of the total landscape. Most importantly, housing growth was concentrated along the boundaries of public lands. In 14 of the 19 counties that we studied, housing growth rates within 1 km of a public land boundary exceeded growth rates in the remainder of the county, and three of the five counties that did not exhibit this pattern, were the ones with the least amount of public land. Future growth can be expected in areas with abundant natural amenities, highlighting the critical need for additional research and effective natural resource management and regional planning to address these challenges

File: Hammer-etal_JEM_2010.pdf

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Computer visualization of pre-settlement and current forests in Wisconsin

A growing trend in public forest management is the inclusion of the public in the decision making process. Visual representations of the management process can assist in conveying complex management treatments. A second trend has been the promotion of biological diversity as a management objective. Ecosystem managers and restoration ecologists are using pre-settlement landscape patterns and forest conditions as a reference point to encourage the recovery of rare or extirpated species and habitat types. The problem is that information about pre-settlement conditions is limited. Our research goal was to visualize pre-settlement forests inWisconsin and compare them with current forest conditions. Presettlement vegetation conditions were derived from computerized U.S. Public Land Survey records. Current forest conditions were derived from USDA Forest Service Forest Inventory and Analysis data. We usedWorld Construction Set software (3D Nature, LLC) for the visualizations. Our results focus on ecosystems that are (a) still widespread but altered in structure and species composition (northern hardwoods communities) or (b) greatly diminished in extent (pine barrens communities). We found there are substantial visual differences between current and pre-settlement forests, most notably in species composition, density, and stand structural complexity. Our results highlight the potential of computer visualization as a tool to aid forest managers and restoration ecologists.

File: Stoltman et al CJFR 2007.pdf

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A historical perspective and future outlook on landscape scale restoration in the northwest Wisconsin Pine Barrens.

The concurrent discussions of landscape scale restora- tion among restoration ecologists, and of historic dis- turbance pattern as a guideline for forest management among forest scientists, offer a unique opportunity for collaboration between these traditionally separated fields. The objective of this study was to review the environmental history, early restoration projects, and current plans to restore landscape patterns at broader scales in the 450,000 ha northwest Wisconsin Pine Bar- rens. The Pine Barrens offer an example of a land- scape shaped by fire in the past. In northwestern Wis- consin historically the barrens were a mosaic of open prairie, savanna, and pine forests on very poor, sandy soils. The surrounding region of better soils was oth- erwise heavily forested. Six restoration sites have been managed since the middle of this century using prescribed burns to maintain the open, barrens habi- tat. However, these sites are not extensive enough to mimic the shifting mosaic of large open patches previ- ously created by fire. Extensive clear-cuts may be used as a substitute for these large fire patches so that pre- settlement landscape patterns are more closely ap- proximated in the current landscape. We suggest that such silvicultural treatments can be suitable to restore certain aspects of presettlement landscapes, such as landscape pattern and open habitat for species such as grassland birds. We are aware that the effects of fire and clear-cuts differ in many aspects and additional management tools, such as prescribed burning after harvesting, may assist in further approximating the effect of natural disturbance. However, the restoration of landscape pattern using clear-cuts may provide an important context for smaller isolated restoration sites even without the subsequent application of fire, in this formerly more open landscape.

File: Radeloff_etal_RestEco2000.pdf

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Cost-effectiveness of different conservation strategies to establish a European bison metapopulation in the Carpathians

1. Where populations are con?ned to fragmented, human-dominated landscapes, preventing declines and extirpations will often rely on metapopulation management. Spatially-explicit population viability analyses provide tools to evaluate how well the local management e?orts can be combined to conserve metapopulations across large areas. Yet, metapopulation models have rarely been combined with tools to assess the cost-e?ectiveness of di?erent conservation strategies. 2. European bison Bison bonasus only occur in small, fragmented populations, making their long-term survival dependent on establishing a metapopulation across eastern Europe. We parameterized a European bison metapopulation model based on time-series of bison demography and a habitat suitability map to assess the viability of bison populations in the Carpathians and the relative cost-e?ectiveness of (i) reintroductions, (ii) wildlife overpasses and (iii) anti-poaching measures in establishing a viable bison metapopulation. 3. Our results suggest that the Carpathians could support a viable metapopulation of European bison provided that active e?orts are taken to safeguard bison and connect isolated herds. With such steps, our model forecasts that bison numbers could increase substantially over the next 100 years as local populations increase and bison recolonize parts of the Carpathians. 4. Reintroductions appear to be the most cost-e?ective approach for establishing a viable bison metapopulation among our scenarios, especially when coupled with wildlife overpasses to improve connectivity among herds. The most promising region for a bison metapopulation in the Carpathians was south-eastern Poland, Ukraine and northern Romania. We identi?ed several candidate regions for reintroductions and wildlife overpasses, especially in the border region of Romania and Ukraine. Site-speci?c assessments of both habitat suitability, and the costs and bene?ts of a large bison population, should target those regions. 5. Synthesis and applications. Our results highlight how careful conservation planning can identify solutions to preserve large mammals in human-dominated landscapes. Choosing the most e?ective option from a range of management strategies is a central challenge for wildlife managers. We have shown that incorporating cost-e?ectiveness analyses into metapopulation models can elucidate the relative value (gain per unit cost) of di?erent conservation management options, allowing decision makers to choose cost-e?ective options to preserve large mammals. Our model projections also provide hope for establishing a viable free-ranging European bison population in the Carpathians, one of the last relatively wild areas in Europe.

File: Kuemmerle_2011_0.pdf

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Predicting potential European bison habitat across its former range

Habitat loss threatens large mammals worldwide and their survival will depend on habitat in human-dominated landscapes. Conservation planners thus face the challenge to identify areas of least conflict with land use, yet broad-scale species distribution models rarely incorporate real landscape patters nor do they identify potential conservation conflicts. An excellent example of such conservation challenges are European bison. Almost extinct by the early 20th century, bison can only survive in the wild if large metapopulations are established, but it is unclear where new herds can be reintroduced. Using European bison as an example we conducted a continental-scale habitat assessment based on real landscape patterns. Our specific aims here were to a) map European bison habitat throughout the species' former range, b) examine whether broad-scale habitat suitability factors differ from previously reported fine-scale factors, and c) assess where suitable habitat occurs in areas with low potential for conflict with land use. We assessed habitat suitability using herd range maps for all 36 free-ranging European bison herds as habitat use data. Habitat suitability maps were compared with maps of land cover, livestock density, agricultural constraints, and protected areas to assess potential conservation conflicts. Our models had high goodness-of-fit (AUC = 0.941) and we found abundant potential bison habitat. European bison prefer mosaic-type landscapes, with a preference for broadleaved and mixed forests. European bison metapopulations appear not limited by habitat availability. However, most potential habitat occurred outside protected areas and has substantial potential for conservation conflicts. The most promising areas to establish large bison metapopulations all occur in Eastern Europe (i.e., the Carpathians, the Belarus-Ukraine borderlands, and several regions in European Russia). The future of European bison and that of other large mammals in the wild thus clearly lies in Eastern Europe, because habitat there is most abundant and least fragmented, and because the potential for conflict with land use is lower. More generally we suggest that broad-scale habitat assessments that incorporate land use can be powerful tools for conservation planning and will be key if large herbivore and carnivore conservation is to succeed in a human-dominated world.

File: Kuemmerle_2011_2_0.pdf

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Effects of oak barrens habitat management for Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides samuelis) on the avian community

The federally endangered Karner blue butterfly (Lycaeides samuelis) is the focal species for a conservation plan designed to create and maintain barrens habitats. We investigated whether habitat management for Karner blue butterflies influences avian community structure at Fort McCoy Military Installation in Wisconsin, USA. From 2007 through 2009 breeding bird point count and habitat characteristic data were collected at 186 sample points in five habitat types including two remnant barrens types, barrens habitat restored from woodland and managed specifically for the Karner blue butterfly, and two woodland habitat types. Although the bird community of managed barrens was not identical to the communities of remnant barrens, the Field Sparrow (Spizella pusilla), a species of conservation concern, and sparse canopy associated bird species, such as the Baltimore Oriole (Icterus galbula) and Eastern Bluebird (Sialia sialis) were predicted to occupy managed barrens and remnant barrens in similar proportions. Adjacent habitat was the most influential factor in determining the community of bird species using the managed barrens. In Wisconsin, and likely throughout the range of the Karner blue butterfly, management for the butterfly creates habitat that attracts a bird community similar to that of remnant barrens, and benefits several avian species of conservation concern. Additionally, the landscape context surrounding the managed habitat influences avian community composition. Managed barrens that are adjacent to remnant barrens, rather than adjacent to woodland habitats, have the highest potential for conserving barrens breeding birds.

File: Wood2011.pdf

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