Climate change is accompanied by shifts in species distributions, as portions of current ranges become less
suitable. Maintaining or improving landscape connectivity to facilitate species movements is a primary approach
to mitigate the effects of climate change on biodiversity. However, it is not clear how ongoing changes in land
use and climate may affect the existing connectivity of landscapes. We evaluated shifts in habitat suitability and
connectivity for the imperiled Blanding's turtle (Emydoidea blandingii) in Wisconsin using species distribution
modeling in combination with different future scenarios of both land use change and climate change for the
2050s. We found that climate change had significant effects on both habitat suitability and connectivity,
however, there was little difference in the magnitude of effects among different economic scenarios. Under both
our low- and high-CO2 emissions scenarios, suitable habitat for the Blanding's turtle shifted northward. In the
high-emissions scenario, almost no suitable habitat remained for Blanding's turtle in Wisconsin by the 2050s and
there was up to a 100,000-fold increase in landscape resistance to turtle movement, suggesting the landscape
essentially becomes impassable. Habitat loss and landscape resistance were exponentially greater in southern
versus northern Wisconsin, indicating a strong trailing edge effect. Thus, populations at the southern edge of the
range are likely to “fall behind” shifts in suitable habitat faster than northern populations. Given its limited
dispersal capability, loss of suitable habitat may occur at a rate far faster than the Blanding's turtle can adjust to
changing conditions via shifts in range.
File: Hamilton_etal._2018_Slow_and_steady.pdf
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The ecological literature offers many conflicting recommendations for how managers should respond to ecosystem change and
novelty. We propose a framework in which forest managers may achieve desired forest characteristics by combining strategies for
(1) restoring historical conditions, (2) maintaining current conditions, and (3) transitioning toward novel conditions. Drawing on
policy studies and the ecological and social sciences, we synthesize research on factors that shape forest management responses to
ecosystem novelty and change. Although the ecological literature often suggests the likelihood of transitions to novelty, we found
that a management focus on restoration and persistence strategies was supported by landowners, private and public lands policy,
and forest manager capacity and culture. In this era of unprecedented change, managers and policy makers must address
ecosystem novelty to achieve desired forest futures without eroding support for forest conservation and management.
File: Rissman2018_novelty_Frontiers.pdf
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Targeting conservation actions efficiently requires information on vulnerability of and threats to conservation
targets, but such information is rarely included in conservation plans. In the U.S., recently updated State Wildlife
Action Plans identify Conservation Opportunity Areas (COAs) selected by each state as priority areas for future
action to conserve wildlife and habitats. The question is how threatened these COAs are by habitat loss and
degradation, major threats to wildlife in the U.S. that are often caused by housing development. We compiled
spatial data on COAs across the conterminous U.S. We estimated COA vulnerability using current land protection
status and COA threat using projected housing growth derived from U.S. census data. COAs comprise 1–46% of
each region. Across regions, 28–82% of the area within COAs is vulnerable to future housing development, and
5–55% and 7–23% of that vulnerable COA area is threatened by projected dense housing and rapid housing
growth, respectively. COA vulnerability is greatest in the East. Threat from dense housing and rapid housing
growth is highest in the Northeast and Pacific Southwest, respectively. Results highlight that many areas
identified as important for reducing wildlife listings under the U.S. Endangered Species Act may need further
protection to fulfill their conservation goals because they are both vulnerable to and threatened by future
housing development. Our analyses can help practitioners target local government outreach, land protection
efforts, and landscape-scale mitigation programs to decrease future COA loss from housing development, and
could be expanded to address additional COA threats (e.g., wildfire, invasive species).
File: SCarter_etal_LUP_2019.pdf
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Remotely sensed data can help to identify both suitable habitat for individual species, and environmental conditions
that foster species richness, which is important when predicting how biodiversity will respond to global change. The
question is how to summarize remotely sensed data so that they are most relevant for biodiversity analyses, and the
Dynamic Habitat Indices are three metrics designed for this. Our goals here were to a) derive, for the first time, the
Dynamic Habitat Indices (DHIs) globally, and b) use these to evaluate three hypotheses (available energy, environmental
stress, and environmental stability) that attempt to explain global variation in species richness of
amphibians, birds, and mammals. The three DHIs summarize three key measures of vegetative productivity: a)
annual cumulative productivity, which we used to evaluate the available energy hypothesis that more energy is
associate with higher species richness; b) minimum productivity throughout the year, which we used to evaluate the
environmental stress hypothesis that higher minima cause higher species richness, and c) seasonality, expressed as
the annual coefficient of variation in productivity, which we used to evaluate the environmental stability hypothesis
that less intra-annual variability causes higher species richness. We calculated the DHIs globally at 1-km resolution
from MODIS vegetation products (NDVI, EVI, LAI, fPAR, and GPP), based on the median of the good observations of
all years from the entire MODIS record for each of the 23 or 46 possible dates (8- vs. 16-day composites) during the
year, and calculated species richness for three taxa (amphibians, birds, and mammals) at 110-km resolution from
species range maps from the IUCN Red List. We found marked global patterns of the DHIs, and strong support for all
three hypotheses. The three DHIs for a given vegetation product were well correlated (Spearman rank correlations
ranging from −0.6 (cumulative vs. variation DHIs) to −0.93 (variation vs. minimum DHI)). Similarly, DHI components
derived from different MODIS vegetation products were well correlated (0.8–0.9), and correlations of the
DHIs with temperature and precipitation were moderate and strong respectively. All three DHIs were well correlated
with species richness, showing in ranked order positive correlations for cumulative DHI based on GPP (Spearman
rank correlations of 0.75, 0.63, and 0.67 for amphibians, resident birds, and mammals respectively) and minimum
DHI (0.73, 0.83, and 0.62), and negative for variation DHI (−0.69, −0.83, and −0.59). Multiple linear models of all
three DHIs explained 67%, 65%, and 61% of the variability in species richness of amphibians, resident birds, and
mammals, respectively. The DHIs, which are closely related to well-established ecological hypotheses of biodiversity,
can predict species richness well, and are promising for application in biodiversity science and conservation.
File: Radeloff_Global_DHIs_RSE_2019.pdf
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Aim: Populations of large ungulates are dwindling worldwide. This is especially so for
wild sheep, which compete with livestock for forage, are disturbed by shepherds and
their dogs, and are exposed to disease transmissions from livestock. Our aim was to
assess spatial patterns in realized niche overlap between wild and domestic sheep to
better understand where potential competition might arise, and thus to identify priority
areas for wild sheep recovery.
Location: Southern Caucasus (220,000 km2).
Methods: We studied Gmelin’s mouflon (Ovis orientalis gmelinii), an ancestor of domestic
sheep, to investigate seasonal habitat use and niche overlap with domestic
sheep. To map habitat, we analysed mouflon occurrences collected during 2006–
2016, and domestic sheep occurrences from shepherd camp locations digitized on
high-resolution
satellite imagery. We mapped areas of potential competition between
mouflon and domestic sheep and assessed potential habitat displacement.
Results: Mouflon and domestic sheep niches overlapped substantially (overlap index
I = 0.89, where 1 means perfect overlap) but were not identical. Mouflon habitat was
less widespread than domestic sheep habitat (14,000 vs. 40,270 km2) and tended to
be located in more rugged areas with less vegetation cover. We identified 51 priority
patches as reintroduction candidates if grazing pressure and poaching were
reduced.
Main conclusions: Our results suggest that competition with domestic sheep might
have pushed mouflon into marginal habitat. Thus, conservation efforts focusing on
current mouflon habitat might miss suitable reintroduction sites. We demonstrate
that a combined habitat model for wild and domestic sheep can identify general
sheep habitat, which might be more useful for conservation planning than understanding
current mouflon habitat selection. Our results highlight that considering
competition with livestock is important for large ungulate conservation, both in
terms of reactive (e.g., lessening livestock pressure in prime habitat) and proactive
strategies (e.g., reintroduction in areas with low contemporary overlap).
File: Bleyhl_et_al-2019-Diversity_and_Distributions.pdf
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Carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) can affect national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, in which the production
and end use of HWPs play a key role. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidance on HWP carbon accounting, which is sensitive to future developments of socioeconomic factors including population, income, and trade. We
estimated the carbon stored within HWPs from 1961 to 2065 for
180 countries following IPCC carbon-accounting guidelines, consistent with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAOSTAT) historical data and plausible futures outlined by the
shared socioeconomic pathways. We found that the global HWP
pool was a net annual sink of 335 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)·y−1
in 2015, offsetting substantial amounts of industrial processes
within some countries, and as much as 441 Mt of CO2e·y−1 by 2030
under certain socioeconomic developments. Furthermore, there is
a considerable sequestration gap (71 Mt of CO2e·y−1 of unaccounted carbon storage in 2015 and 120 Mt of CO2e·y−1 by 2065)
under current IPCC Good Practice Guidance, as traded feedstock
is ineligible for national GHG inventories. However, even under
favorable socioeconomic conditions, and when accounting for
the sequestration gap, carbon stored annually in HWPs is <1%
of global emissions. Furthermore, economic shocks can turn the
HWP pool into a carbon source either long-term—e.g., the collapse of the USSR—or short-term—e.g., the US economic recession of 2008/09. In conclusion, carbon stored within end-use
HWPs varies widely across countries and depends on evolving
market forces.
File: Johnston_etal_PNAS_2019.pdf
Carbon stored in harvested wood products (HWPs) can affect national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories, in which the production
and end use of HWPs play a key role. The Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change (IPCC) provides guidance on HWP carbon accounting, which is sensitive to future developments of socioeconomic factors including population, income, and trade. We
estimated the carbon stored within HWPs from 1961 to 2065 for
180 countries following IPCC carbon-accounting guidelines, consistent with Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAOSTAT) historical data and plausible futures outlined by the
shared socioeconomic pathways. We found that the global HWP
pool was a net annual sink of 335 Mt of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)·y−1
in 2015, offsetting substantial amounts of industrial processes
within some countries, and as much as 441 Mt of CO2e·y−1 by 2030
under certain socioeconomic developments. Furthermore, there is
a considerable sequestration gap (71 Mt of CO2e·y−1 of unaccounted carbon storage in 2015 and 120 Mt of CO2e·y−1 by 2065)
under current IPCC Good Practice Guidance, as traded feedstock
is ineligible for national GHG inventories. However, even under
favorable socioeconomic conditions, and when accounting for
the sequestration gap, carbon stored annually in HWPs is <1%
of global emissions. Furthermore, economic shocks can turn the
HWP pool into a carbon source either long-term—e.g., the collapse of the USSR—or short-term—e.g., the US economic recession of 2008/09. In conclusion, carbon stored within end-use
HWPs varies widely across countries and depends on evolving
market forces.
Public lands provide many ecosystem services and support diverse plant and animal
communities. In order to provide these benefits in the future, land managers and policy
makers need information about future climate change and its potential effects. In particular,
weather extremes are key drivers of wildfires, droughts, and false springs, which in turn can
have large impacts on ecosystems. However, information on future changes in weather
extremes on public lands is lacking. Our goal was to compare historical (1950–2005) and projected
mid-century (2041–2070) changes in weather extremes (fire weather, spring droughts,
and false springs) on public lands. This case study looked at the lands managed by the U.S.
Forest Service across the conterminous United States including 501 ranger district units. We
analyzed downscaled projections of daily records from 19 Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project 5 General Circulation Models for two climate scenarios, with either medium-low or
high CO2 equivalent concentration (RCPs 4.5 and 8.5). For each ranger district, we estimated:
(1) fire potential, using the Keetch-Byram Drought Index; (2) frequency of spring
droughts, using the Standardized Precipitation Index; and (3) frequency of false springs, using
the extended Spring Indices. We found that future climates could substantially alter weather
conditions across Forest Service lands. Under the two climate scenarios, increases in wildfire
potential, spring droughts, and false springs were projected in 32–72%, 28–29%, and 13–16%
of all ranger districts, respectively. Moreover, a substantial number of ranger districts
(17–30%), especially in the Southwestern, Pacific Southwest, and Rocky Mountain regions,
were projected to see increases in more than one type of weather extreme, which may require
special management attention. We suggest that future changes in weather extremes could
threaten the ability of public lands to provide ecosystem services and ecological benefits to
society. Overall, our results highlight the value of spatially-explicit weather projections to
assess future changes in key weather extremes for land managers and policy makers.
File: Martinuzzi_et_al-2019-Ecological_Applications.pdf
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When political regimes fall, economic conditions change and wildlife protection can be undermined. Eastern
European countries experienced turmoil following the collapse of socialism in the early 1990s, raising the
question of how wildlife was affected. We show that the aftermath of the collapse changed the population
growth rates of various wildlife taxa. We analyzed populations of moose (Alces alces), wild boar (Sus scrofa),
red deer (Cervus elaphus), roe deer (Capreolus capreolus), brown bear (Ursus arctos), Eurasian lynx (Lynx
lynx), and gray wolf (Canis lupus) in nine countries. Population growth rates changed in 32 out of 49 time
series. In the countries that reformed slowly, many species exhibited rapid population declines, and
population
growth rates changed in 83% of the time series. In contrast, in countries with fast post-socialism
reforms, many populations increased rapidly, and growth rates changed in only 48% of time series. Our
results suggest that the direction and frequency of the changes were associated with socioeconomic
conditions,
and that wildlife populations can be greatly affected by socioeconomic upheavals.
File: Bragina2018_WildlifePop_Frontiers.pdf
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Identifying which species are at greatest risk, what makes them vulnerable, and where they
are distributed are central goals for conservation science. While knowledge of which factors
influence extinction risk is increasingly available for some taxonomic groups, a deeper
understanding of extinction correlates and the geography of risk remains lacking. Here, we
develop a predictive random forest model using both geospatial and mammalian species'
trait data to uncover the statistical and geographic distributions of extinction correlates. We
also explore how this geography of risk may change under a rapidly warming climate. We
found distinctive macroecological relationships between species-level risk and extinction
correlates, including the intrinsic biological traits of geographic range size, body size and
taxonomy, and extrinsic geographic settings such as seasonality, habitat type, land use and
human population density. Each extinction correlate exhibited ranges of values that were
especially associated with risk, and the importance of different risk factors was not geographically
uniform across the globe. We also found that about 10% of mammals not currently
recognized as at-risk have biological traits and occur in environments that predispose
them towards extinction. Southeast Asia had the most actually and potentially threatened
species, underscoring the urgent need for conservation in this region. Additionally, nearly
40% of currently threatened species were predicted to experience rapid climate change at
0.5 km/year or more. Biological and environmental correlates of mammalian extinction risk
exhibit distinct statistical and geographic distributions. These results provide insight into
species-level patterns and processes underlying geographic variation in extinction risk.
They also offer guidance for future conservation research focused on specific geographic
regions, or evaluating the degree to which species-level patterns mirror spatial variation in
the pressures faced by populations within the ranges of individual species. The added
impacts from climate change may increase the susceptibility of at-risk species to extinction
and expand the regions where mammals are most vulnerable globally.
File: Davidson2017_MammalExtinct_Plos1.pdf
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