Modelling migratory waterfowl stopover habitat while accounting for ephemeral environmental conditions

Download Rogova et al. 2025_Modelling migratory waterfowl stopover habitat_JAppliedEcology

Migratory species depend on ephemeral environmental conditions; thus,
species distribution modelling (SDM) must incorporate phenological changes
along migratory routes. Our overarching goal was to model habitats for three
waterfowl species migrating through Eurasian grasslands (red-breasted
goose
[Branta ruficollis], taiga bean goose [Anser fabalis fabalis] and Bewick's swan
[Cygnus columbianus bewickii]) while accounting for ephemeral environmental
conditions. Our objectives were (a) to develop a workflow of mapping ephemeral
environmental conditions, (b) model habitats for the three species and (c)
evaluate the protection status of habitats in natural and agricultural landscapes.
We expected water availability, particularly ephemeral spring waterbodies, to
strongly influence these species' distributions.
2. We utilized MODIS data for phenological synchronization of Landsat images
to create species-and
season-specific
metrics and land cover maps. We used
Landsat-derived
environmental variables, elevation and bird GPS locations in
Maxent SDM. We compared locations of modelled habitats, protected areas and
Ramsar sites.
3. Our land cover maps had an overall accuracy of 0.92–0.95 and captured ephemeral
water extent during these species' migrations. All models had AUC scores of
0.89–0.94; distance to water, land cover and elevation were the most important
variables. Modelled habitats were distributed unevenly and occurred in both
natural and agricultural landscapes; 40%–76% fell within croplands. Although
most croplands provide a rich food supply, their value as waterfowl habitat
critically depended on water availability. Approximately 22% of potential habitat
in the natural landscape, but only 3% in croplands, had some level of protection.